Deep Dive Reports

What 40M comments reveal about tech's biggest stories

In-depth analysis with verified citations and original insights from 20 years of Hacker News discussions.

REPORT 2026-01-29

The $0.07 Regret

15 Years of "Bitcoin Is Dead" — How Hacker News Watched the Greatest Asset of Our Generation and Mostly Missed It

17,000+
comments analyzed
16
years of data
2010-2026
time range
Bitcoin Investing Predictions
"
"I wish I'd bought more than I did back at $.07/BTC."
— vessenes, 2011
That $0.07 became $100,000. Same user was still posting in 2021.
$0.07 → $100,000. A 1,428,571x return. The community that saw it first understood it least.
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REPORT 2026-01-29

The 90% Trap

Why Every Generation of Engineers Thought They Were Five Years Away — And Why They Were All Right

8,000+
comments analyzed
18
years of data
2007-2026
time range
Autonomy Forecasting Complexity
"
"Self driving cars are 15 years away."
— btilly, 2011
2011 + 15 = 2026. We're here. Still waiting.
Each era solved 90% of their problem. 90% × 90% × 90% × 90% = 65%.
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REPORT 2026-01-29

Always Five Years Away

How 18 years of Hacker News predictions kept sliding the self-driving deadline

7,980
comments analyzed
18
years of data
2007-2026
time range
Autonomy Transportation AI
"
Volvo are planning to ship their first self driving cars in 2014.
— taligent, 2013
A classic deadline that slipped into the next window
Self-driving cars stayed perpetually five years out in HN discourse
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REPORT 2026-01-29

The Ghost of Collaboration Future

15 Years of "Ahead of Its Time" — How Google Wave Became Tech's Most Cited Cautionary Tale

2,000+
comments analyzed
17
years of data
2009-2026
time range
Collaboration Product Strategy Google
"
"Invites are 110% the first and foremost reason that Wave failed. Can you imagine if Slack relied on invites?"
— lostgame, 2018
52 comments compare Wave to Slack. The ghost haunts every collab tool.
Wave was Slack 5 years before Slack. It died because you couldn't invite your team.
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REPORT 2026-01-29

The $3 Trillion Prophecy

How Hacker News Called Nvidia's Rise — And What They Saw That Wall Street Missed

6,042
comments analyzed
18
years of data
2008-2026
time range
AI Hardware Investing
"
"Nvidia owns deep learning. They are alone at the top. This could be bigger than graphics."
— modeless, 2015
Nvidia market cap: $12B → $3T today
HN users predicted Nvidia's AI dominance 4 years before Wall Street
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