The $0.07 Regret
15 Years of "Bitcoin Is Dead" — How Hacker News Watched the Greatest Asset of Our Generation and Mostly Missed It
The Hidden Pattern
The conventional wisdom says:
"Hacker News is full of smart people who saw Bitcoin early."
The data tells a different story.
HN watched Bitcoin rise from $0.07 to $100,000 — and spent 15 years explaining why it would fail.
A 1,428,571x return. The community that saw it first understood it least.
The same pattern repeats: every crash was "the end," every recovery was "a bubble," and every ATH was "tulip mania." The skeptics were eloquent. The believers got rich.
The 15-Year Journey
From curiosity to trillion-dollar asset class.
The Genesis
$0.07 → $31 → $2
First HN discussions, first bubble, first crash
Curiosity mixed with dismissal. "Interesting experiment."
"I wish I'd bought more than I did back at $.07/BTC."
What happened: vessenes still commenting in 2021. That $0.07 became $69,000.
The First Bubble
$13 → $1,000
Bitcoin breaks $1,000 for the first time
"Tulip mania with bytes." Mainstream media arrives.
"It will be $1000/btc in less than a year."
What happened: He was right. $1,000 hit in November 2013.
The Mt. Gox Winter
$1,000 → $200
Mt. Gox collapse, 850,000 BTC stolen
"Bitcoin is dead." Obituaries written.
"Bitcoin will not rise above $400 by the end of 2017."
What happened: 2017 ended at $20,000. He was off by 50x.
The Mania
$400 → $20,000
Mainstream FOMO, "to the moon" everywhere
Split between euphoria and "this is insane."
"See you guys at 20k!"
What happened: He called it at the exact top. December 2017.
The Crypto Winter
$20,000 → $3,200 → $10,000
85% crash, "I told you so" from skeptics
Vindication for bears. Quiet accumulation by believers.
"If that isn't a crash then what is?"
What happened: The crash that preceded a 20x rally.
The Institution Era
$10,000 → $69,000 → $100,000
Tesla, MicroStrategy, ETF approval
Grudging acceptance. "OK, it's not going away."
"ETF options… hard to see this not hitting $100K by year end."
What happened: Bitcoin ETF approved January 2024. $100k hit.
🧀 Aged Like Milk
The most confident predictions that aged the worst.
"So, that's the end of Bitcoin then."
"Bitcoin will not rise above $400 by the end of 2017, nor above $300 for more than 48 hours."
"Its the tulip craze with bytes."
"Bitcoin is a fascinating model of how to run a distributed, internet based boiler room."
"bitcoin is dead. long live the bitcoin!"
🔮 The Prophets
Those who called it right — and got ignored.
"I won't be surprised by $5-$10 by the end of the year."
Verdict: Bitcoin hit $31 that year. Conservative, but directionally perfect.
"It will be $1000/btc in less than a year."
Verdict: $1,000 hit within months. Nailed it.
"I think bitcoin will go to $10,000 USD."
Verdict: $10,000 broken in November 2017. Correct.
"I'm expecting a 20k BTC before end of 2018."
Verdict: $20,000 hit in December 2017. One year early.
😢 The Eternal Regret
"I wish I had bought more." "I wish I hadn't sold."
"I wish I'd bought more than I did back at $.07/BTC."
$100 at $0.07 = 1,428 BTC = $142,800,000 today
"Sold everything I had yesterday at ~$240."
Sold at $240. Peak that cycle: $1,000. Later: $69,000.
💀 The Losses
Mt. Gox. Hacks. Lost keys. The human cost of early crypto.
"I wish I could get my stolen MtGox bitcoin back."
Mt. Gox collapse in 2014 lost 850,000 BTC
"I sure would like to have the 25BTC back that I lost from them."
25 BTC in 2017 = ~$500,000. In 2021 = ~$1,725,000.
"Mt Gox… running away with around $500M of their client's money."
That $500M in 2014 BTC would be worth ~$50 billion today.
"Bitcoin lost $3 billion in market value in 40 minutes."
Volatility that would become routine.
🚀 The Euphoria
"To the moon!" — The battle cries of each bubble.
The Memes That Defined an Era
Origin: 2014, @jff, ID 8178334
Sarcastic response to any news, implying Bitcoin fans spin everything as positive
Origin: 2014, @davidgerard (earliest in data), ID 8413190
Originally a typo for "hold" — became battle cry of believers
Origin: Early crypto forums, popularized 2017
Expression of extreme bullishness
Origin: 2021, @throw_away892, ID 26236478
Refusing to sell despite volatility
So What?
What 15 years of Bitcoin debates on HN teach us.
Eloquent skepticism ≠ correct skepticism
The most articulate HN comments were often the most wrong. "Tulip mania" was repeated for 15 years while the asset did 1,000,000x. Being smart doesn't mean being right about paradigm shifts.
Communities see revolutions first — and dismiss them
HN discussed Bitcoin in 2010 when it was worth pennies. The information advantage was enormous. The conviction advantage was zero. Early access means nothing without conviction.
The "I told you so" rarely comes
Most skeptics quietly disappeared. Most believers quietly got rich. The loudest voices in 2013 aren't the loudest voices in 2024. Markets humble everyone eventually.
The Verdict
Hacker News had a front-row seat to the greatest asset appreciation in modern history — and spent 15 years explaining why it wouldn't work.
The skeptics weren't stupid. They were often the most articulate voices in the room. But being smart and being right are different things. The believers weren't necessarily smarter — they were just willing to be wrong in a different way.
The $0.07 Lesson: Early access is worthless without conviction. HN knew about Bitcoin before almost anyone. That knowledge meant nothing without the willingness to act on it — and to hold through every "this is the end" moment.
"I wish I'd bought more than I did back at $.07/BTC."
— @vessenes, 2011
$0.07 → $100,000. The same user was still posting on HN in 2021.
HN Zeitgeist — 17,000 comments. 15 years. One asset. Infinite regrets.