Rapid Tech Progress

Wind back the clock only 20-30 years and such a thing would have been astounding. You're making the mistake of considing current technology humdrum.

> One way to dispel the idea that everything has been invented is to imagine something small and mundane – but 100 years in the future...Hasn't people always thought there were living in the pinnacle of technology era? I mean, if you look at texts that are 50 or 100 years old, you can see people chest thumping about how they are in the modern world.Aren't we doing the same now?

Sure, but you fail to understand how rapidly this technology is changing. Yes, today it's a machine for spewing out glibly rephrased reddit posts. But think back to the 1970s when jetpacks were first demonstrated. Today we're all flying around on them; the automobile, aviation, and flame-retardant headgear industries have been radically altered, and humanity will never be the same again.

I agree with this. I think there's also a great parallel analogy in the recent past:In the 1960's we were at the top of the curve for transportation technology, with space travel happening for the first time. In one lifetime people had gone from steam trains + horses to jet aircraft and humans landing on the moon. So if you look at the narratives of the time, it was that we would soon have flying cars, moon colonies, the future would be "the Jetsons." Meanwhile people did

"Everything we take for granted was just a vague idea 50 years ago" Hell most of it was a vague idea 12 years ago

Let's see how someone from the past reacts when you tell them about modern technology

Computers are an even better example. Their early usages were incredibly primitive, limited, and astronomically expensive. You had governments dropping very large amounts of money on what were glorified calculators. If you would have even suggested that these 'computing machines' would lead to what we have today, it would have sounded like fantasy. The most remarkable thing is that the transition from effectively no computers to them revolutionizing our entire species happened in less

Looking back at old visions of the future, they always seem to imagine the obvious things, e.g. flying cars and nuclear power. What I haven't ever seen is anything close to modern computers, which arguably have just as profound an impact on our lives and are probably more impressive technologically.

We're talking about hundreds and thousands of years though. A few hundred years ago, the mere thought of airplanes and cell phones would be considered witchcraft. I don't think it's a long shot to be reasonably optimistic about where humanity can get in terms of technology.

It may happen, certainly will happen eventually, but every generation for the last 60 years has said the same (eg Space 1999, 2001 Space Odyssey, Blade Runner, etc) and as we inch ever closer we realise we are even further away than we first estimated. I guess it’s a bit like the Dunning-Kruger effect.That all said, the advent of the the web and “smart” devices have changed the world more significantly and in a shorter space of time than any other technological leap in human history. I