Prediction Skepticism

Comments in this cluster express doubt about the accuracy and reliability of predictions, frequently citing historical failures, lack of clairvoyance, and the poor track record of forecasters. Discussions challenge bold claims, demand evidence or past predictions, and argue against taking future forecasts as fact.

📉 Falling 0.5x Other
6,903
Comments
20
Years Active
5
Top Authors
#9344
Topic ID

Activity Over Time

2007
17
2008
107
2009
118
2010
208
2011
231
2012
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2013
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2014
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2015
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2016
328
2017
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2018
329
2019
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2020
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2021
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2022
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2023
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2024
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2026
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Keywords

e.g IMO predictionbook.com twitter.com BEFORE ycombinator.com predictions prediction predict people wrong predicted wrong future silly predicting accurate

Sample Comments

plesner Nov 1, 2018 View on HN

Can you expand on this? What makes you sure these predictions won't come true?

pfortuny Mar 3, 2019 View on HN

Predicting the future works until is does not. This happens a lot more frequently than ome might think.

shadowfox Jun 29, 2013 View on HN

Do you happen to have any failed predictions, by any chance?

scotty79 Dec 29, 2021 View on HN

Predictions shouldn't exist because noone is clairvoyant.

ajdegol Oct 10, 2019 View on HN

Are you able to cite these predictions?

schwartzworld Jan 2, 2023 View on HN

They said "prediction" not "wish list"

sojournerc Apr 23, 2024 View on HN

According to some models... Why do you state predictions as though they are fact?

exe34 Dec 14, 2024 View on HN

so your prediction is that most predictions will be wrong?

lonnydonovan Dec 19, 2021 View on HN

Who thinks this is a realistic prediction?

umvi Nov 3, 2019 View on HN

If it makes you feel any better, our track record for predicting the future has historically been terrible. I highly doubt everything will play out the current evidence suggests.