Prediction Skepticism

Comments in this cluster express doubt about the accuracy and reliability of predictions, frequently citing historical failures, lack of clairvoyance, and the poor track record of forecasters. Discussions challenge bold claims, demand evidence or past predictions, and argue against taking future forecasts as fact.

📉 Falling 0.5x Other
6,903
Comments
20
Years Active
5
Top Authors
#9344
Topic ID

Activity Over Time

2007
17
2008
107
2009
118
2010
208
2011
231
2012
200
2013
235
2014
203
2015
240
2016
328
2017
337
2018
329
2019
402
2020
637
2021
549
2022
765
2023
758
2024
497
2025
678
2026
64

Keywords

e.g IMO predictionbook.com twitter.com BEFORE ycombinator.com predictions prediction predict people wrong predicted wrong future silly predicting accurate

Sample Comments

plesner • Nov 1, 2018 • View on HN

Can you expand on this? What makes you sure these predictions won't come true?

pfortuny • Mar 3, 2019 • View on HN

Predicting the future works until is does not. This happens a lot more frequently than ome might think.

shadowfox • Jun 29, 2013 • View on HN

Do you happen to have any failed predictions, by any chance?

scotty79 • Dec 29, 2021 • View on HN

Predictions shouldn't exist because noone is clairvoyant.

ajdegol • Oct 10, 2019 • View on HN

Are you able to cite these predictions?

schwartzworld • Jan 2, 2023 • View on HN

They said "prediction" not "wish list"

sojournerc • Apr 23, 2024 • View on HN

According to some models... Why do you state predictions as though they are fact?

exe34 • Dec 14, 2024 • View on HN

so your prediction is that most predictions will be wrong?

lonnydonovan • Dec 19, 2021 • View on HN

Who thinks this is a realistic prediction?

umvi • Nov 3, 2019 • View on HN

If it makes you feel any better, our track record for predicting the future has historically been terrible. I highly doubt everything will play out the current evidence suggests.