AGI Timeline Debate

The cluster focuses on discussions about whether AGI is imminent, featuring predictions, skepticism, evidence from recent AI advancements, and debates on timelines ranging from soon to decades away.

➡️ Stable 1.0x AI & Machine Learning
4,663
Comments
20
Years Active
5
Top Authors
#8821
Topic ID

Activity Over Time

2007
1
2008
1
2009
9
2010
2
2011
7
2012
14
2013
9
2014
24
2015
67
2016
100
2017
131
2018
129
2019
242
2020
123
2021
101
2022
318
2023
1,063
2024
879
2025
1,380
2026
63

Keywords

MS AI AGI HN IMO ML LessWrong SF USD CUDA agi ai close predict bet sam altman economic growth altman soon sam

Sample Comments

slaterbug Oct 1, 2025 View on HN

What evidence is there that AGI will come “soon”?

sph May 3, 2025 View on HN

Let's achieve AGI first before making predictions.

wly_cdgr Jul 17, 2021 View on HN

This feels like a strong sign that AGI is quite close now

motza Aug 4, 2025 View on HN

Maybe we are getting close to AGI then

atleastoptimal Dec 13, 2023 View on HN

when do you think we will reach AGI?

hansmayer Mar 28, 2025 View on HN

How about Sam Altman literally saying on twitter "We know how to build AGI now"? That close enough?

catigula Aug 7, 2025 View on HN

I thought we were going to have AGI by now.

hackandtrip Jan 22, 2019 View on HN

Your argument is based on AGI, something we have no idea if will ever happen, and most likely nearly as close as you think.

bestouff Jul 5, 2025 View on HN

Are there some people here in HN believing in AGI "soonish" ?

JimtheCoder Jul 20, 2023 View on HN

"And AGI could happen in the coming year.""People who talk like this are idiotic at best."