Future Tech Predictions

I'm gonna make a contrarian prediction: consumer-facing technology won't change much over the next 10-15 years. Self-driving cars, smart clothes, artificial meat/meat substitutes, and AR/VR will all fail to become mainstream, each with less than 5-10% consumer adoption across the general population (partial autonomy in cars may become common, but full L5 autonomy won't). The real changes will be invisible, mainly changes to infrastructure. I predict that the grid will be

Here are mine:1. Still no level 4/5 autonomous cars anywhere in sight. The promise of being "just around the corner" fizzles down and people just forget the hype.2. Same with AI. The panacea hype dies down. No AGI at all. No major job losses due to AI automation.3. Facebook (the SN) still exists but ages along with it's current user base. i.e it's the "old people's" SN. Facebook (the company) is still going strong, with either Instagram or one of

Things I believe will stay the same:* Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple will have roughly the same dominant positions.* Bitcoin will play roughly the same role it plays today (store of value, more like gold than money, similar mkt cap) * Machine learning continues to grow in usage and capability, but there will be no "revolution" in AI.* Nobody on Mars* No serious alternatives to advertisements will emerge for industries where ads have traditionally driven profits.* Climat

- SpaceX will land a human on Mars and create some super great marketing material. This will strongly galvanize interest in space. Many ambitious people will be interested in space projects or startups- deep learning will continue to amaze people in being able to solve problems considered not well suited to it. Some of these applications will seem crazy in retrospect- folks at OpenAI or Google will get something crazy to happen with a huge amount of compute. It won't feel like AGI but

- “AI” will be a continuing hype that still falls to deliver. “Self driving cars“ will be a thing but not in the sense that they are fully autonomous. People still buy (more often leads) and drive cars.- Personal Integrity will be the new “organic” of gadgets. A more tech savvy and privacy conscious generation will demand to not be listened to by their TVs.- Traditional auto makers have a tough first half of the decade, converting to BEV production. They do catch up with electric vehicle p

- Large scale nuclear power continues to grow outside the US but does not grow as a percentage. Climate change is talked about the same amount.- Human gene editing stays in the realm of the "near future"- Average lifespan decreases due to preventable health causes but medical care continues to innovate overall.- No near permanently manned (e.g. ISS) bases are established on other bodies. Asteroid mining stays in "near future" but with realistic plans at the end of th

1. Apple will become more and more consumer focused leaving a void for the niche market of power users (programmers, designers).2. Microsoft will open source Windows (indirectly by using a linux kernel) and throw in the towel on the OS game.3. "Offline" becomes hip.4. New person-addressable federated message transport protocol gains popularity, probably on the back of SMTP/email systems. Someone will try to call it "server-less" apps.5. Common federated ident

I'm going to try to name some less mentioned predictions here:- Smartphones/Tablets doubling as low power desktops/laptops will gain traction- ARM and RISC-V will gain influence in desktops and servers, not that it will matter because CPU architecture will be abstracted out even more- FPGAs will come more commonplace, and we will get better HDLs and hardware development workflows. Startups will capitalize on it, disrupting the hardware industry, but we won't see any

- Nuclear power is more popular, especially small-scale, and climate change isn't really talked about any more in 2030- Human genetic editing becomes mainstream; treating genetic diseases will become a cheap standard procedure; genetic enhancement is also becoming popular in China and South Korea and will be a hot political topic- Human lifespan can be increased by at least 20% with treatment- Most traditional car manufacturers go bust or lose business significantly; taken by Tesla

1. Rust will hit the top 5 languages and become a mainstay of robust computing.2. Blockchain won't replace anything. CryptoCurrency won't appreciably become more significant.3. AI will get linearly better, but nothing paradigm-shifting. Its hype will begin to fade.4. There will be a massive privacy leak/security event that will cause us, as a society, to re-evaluate the legal landscape of data collection and monitoring.5. Google will lose significant market share.6.