COVID Test False Positives

This cluster discusses false positive and false negative rates in COVID-19 diagnostic tests, emphasizing sensitivity, specificity, base rate fallacy, and implications of high error rates in low-prevalence scenarios.

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#6040
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Keywords

e.g II TBH i.e MUCH lesswrong.com www.svt youtube.com TRUE nytimes.com false false positive positive test tests positives rate false positives probability negative

Sample Comments

noobrunner Jul 6, 2020 View on HN

Do you know what the false positive rates of these tests are ?

perl4ever Mar 23, 2020 View on HN

If 3% test positive and 0.5% are infected, then most of the positives are false, right?

devy Mar 27, 2020 View on HN

Exactly! For any medical tests, there are 2 measurements: sensitivity and specificity, one to judge false positive and another judge the false negatives.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_and_specificity

nazgulnarsil Aug 5, 2011 View on HN

the article claims a 0% false negative rate. This is a MUCH more important claim. False positives are fine, if scary, you go and get a proper test the next day.

owl57 Mar 20, 2020 View on HN

There are 50% false positive, and there are some false negative. And some more not exactly false negative, but simply got sick after the test. And you tell them: we tested everyone, all negatives can just resume normal life. What could go wrong?

space_fountain Apr 9, 2020 View on HN

What is the false positive rate for these tests?

kalium_xyz Mar 9, 2020 View on HN

The key point is in “basically” its a metaphor. The test kits have a 40% false positive and alternative test kits which may test using an entirely different method may improve this. If you think a 40% false positive is good I urge you to actually read the who guidelines which both state this information and recommend testing people multiple times over two weeks. Source is who technical guidelines for testing on their site.

beojan Mar 20, 2020 View on HN

With a 50% false positive rate, most of your positives are false positive. You might as well just tell everyone who asks for a test that they're infected.

rasz Mar 4, 2020 View on HN

Depending on the test used, there might be >50% false negatives in there.

nmz Jun 25, 2021 View on HN

Maybe I'm misunderstanding this but a 0.5% false positive rate and a 51% positive rate means that you still get a 50% TRUE positive rate instead of the current rate, which is 0%. And then after you can follow up with a test that is more accurate. Everything has an error rate, even pregnancy tests do, and nobody argues that we should not use pregnancy tests.