Probability Debates
Commenters argue over using probabilities instead of certainties in reasoning, debating the correct application, quantification, and understanding of probabilistic concepts in various scenarios.
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Your hypothetical isn't useful; you'll have to give a probabilities instead of certainties.
"Probability" is sometimes a matter of opinion/implementation though.
yeah, it's a reasonable probabilistic inference, not a guarantee
Not when you're thinking in terms of probabilities.
It's all a matter of probabilities.
You seem to be talking in absolutes rather than probabilities.
What does the phrase "I know about probability math" mean in this context? It sounds like you're implying that you have a probablistic model for this scenario, if so I would be very interested to see it.
the probability that we know the true probababillity is what's concerned here.
Can you quantify that probability?
Except, you completely made up that probability