Rare Event Probabilities
Commenters debate and calculate the statistical odds of a specific unlikely event occurring, often challenging perceptions of rarity by considering multiple trials or base rates.
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Anyone want to roughly calculate the odds of this actually happening?
What is the statistical chance of that happening?
Can suggest it's more like 999 times out of 1000?
The odds of this seem astronomically small.
Let's just say the probability is negligible.
The likelihood of it happening to one specific person is small. The likelihood of it happening at all is huge.
"Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten." https://wiki.lspace.org/mediawiki/Million-to-one_chance
Nitpick: really more like a 15% chance over 11 months.1 - (1 - 5/10000)^330 => 0.152(But I think you make a great point, it sounds like a tiny chance but it really does add up.)
Anyone cares to calculate the odds of this happening by accident?
A 23% chance of a 1 in 10,000 chance thing happening every 14,400 chances? That can't be right.