China-Taiwan Invasion Debate

Taiwan is one of the most important allies the US has against China. I think that a straight-up bombing/invasion of Taiwan would be met with a massive naval response from the 7th fleet (pretty much total war, short of nuclear). China is still at least a decade away from naval superiority, so I don’t see why they would tempt fate. They’ll simply continue their buildup in the South China Sea, and hope that the US in the meantime weakens or loses interest for political reasons.

The U.S. isn't the E.U. . It's demonstrated time and time again willingness and ability to engage in conflicts to preserve its own interests. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan (which again, isn't going to happen b/c everybody is fine with the status quo) would without a doubt be met with U.S. forces in the air and sea. China's only hope here is somehow to win a quick and violent war in which the U.S. just says "this isn't worth it" by destroying lots of U.S. as

The fact China hasn't already invaded makes this doubtful. More likely is trying to install a pro-CCP politicians and pursuing annexation politically.The US has had a very close relationship w/ Taiwan for decades including military training and access to newer military hardware.Also discussions about china attacking a US ship are rather silly since that would be an outright declaration of war. The amount of firepower available to the US would level mainland cities.Too much to

I don't think they'll "invade", a word that's mostly used here in the west, mostly in the US, China doesn't seems to want a war, Taiwan even less, its population rejected the pro-US government [1]On the other hand, the US proved that they are willing to replace the goverment of a country and arm it> I seriously doubt that China is secretly prepared to meet their own domestic demand for advanced silicon let alone call bluff of the five eyes.That's th

>> Ironically my only opposition to US chips is that we’re less liable to protect Taiwan if China invadesI'm amazed at how many people think China is going to take Taiwan by force. They're playing a long game because they want it intact. They want the people there to want to be part of China. That doesn't seem to be going very well, but how can outsiders know? But again they're playing a long game and have plenty of time so long as things are moving in the right dire

You are so naive. China is not Afghanistan. Look at where Taiwan is and how big it is. It is 100 miles from the mainland. China can take over it in a matter of days if it wants. China has 4 aircraft carriers now. China has become more and more powerful. And most importantly, China doesn't have oppositions inside and has no cap on casualties. And if it finally decides to invade, it will be all-or-nothing. If the US gets involved, it needs to pass Congress and maintain that win over strong op

I totally disagree with the last paragraph. Shedding blood != waging war. China has never dared until now, and will never dare in the future, to engage in a heads-on conflict against the USA. It has skirmishes and conflicts with almost every neighbour. The PRC defence forces do not have the worldwide fighting experience which the US has. Nuclear deterrence acts strongly against the PRC, and they won’t do anything stupid against Taiwan as long as US Navy is positioned in their backyard.

It would be a proxy war, not direct US troop involvement. But China says any response from Taiwan will be taken as a direct response from the US. So, that could go south in a hurry.I think Ukraine showed China exactly what the world response would be to such an invasion - i.e. shunning, so I doubt this would happen except as a way to goad the US into a war. And China certainly isn't ready for that yet.From the US POV, we are only posturing economically so China can't jump

Surely China is not planing on taking on Taiwan after seeing the Western reaction to the war in Ukraine?

There is a very real risk coming up in a few years of China attempting to invade Taiwan. 250,000 people in Ukraine and Russia are killed or wounded because Russia was not deterred to invade. The difference in distance makes it difficult to project power in defense of Taiwan, without programs like these. China is making more progress than the US on closing the military differential.