AI Progress Acceleration

You are describing the current state of AI as if it were a stable point.AI today is far ahead of two years ago. Every year for many years before that, deep learning models broke benchmark after benchmark before that breakout.There is no indication of any slow down. The complete reverse - we are seeing dramatic acceleration of an already fast moving field.Both research and resources are pouring into major improvements in multi-modal learning and learning via other means than human data.

The goalpost moving is supersonic. "AI isn't that impressive, it's only more creative than most humans." was an unthinkable sentence only 5 years ago.

The progress in AI isn't fast enough for you?

Give it a year or 2. Its not like 2 years ago everyone wasn't saying it would be 10+ years before AI can do what it does now.

I think there is a lot of evidence that explosive progress could be made quickly. Alphago zero, machine cision, sentiment analysis, machine translation.. voice.. etc etc etcAll these things have surged incredibly in less than a decade.It's always a long way off until it isn't.

Please, please seriously think back to your 2020 self, and think about whether your 2020 self would be surprised by what AI can do today.You've frog-boiled yourself into timelines where "No WORLD SHAKING AI launches in the past 4 months" means "AI is frozen". In 4 months, you will be shocked if AI doesn't have a major improvement every 2 months. In 6 months, you will be shocked if it doesn't have a major update ever 1 month.It's hard to see exponen

You are 100% correct about AI today, however, I feel people are way too fast at making a final assessment of what AI can and cannot do as if it was set in stone. People seem so sure that the problems AI are having now are just intrinsic and just won't be overcome.But think about what computers were like when they first hit the market. What about the first year of public internet? Or the first generation of cellphones. These technologies also had major issues and shortcomings that would,

"hasn't really come very far in a few decades"? How about AlphaGo Zero?

Its hard to say. Historically new discoveries in AI often generated great excitement and high expectations, followed by some progress, then stalling, disillusionment and AI winter. Maybe this time it will be different. Either way what was achieved so far is already a huge deal.

Current approaches have already given us GPT3 (people on HN are still mostly unaware how much GPT3 is tested here and are unable to discern the difference), DALLE, and Copilot. 15 years is quick, and 15 years ago there were no iPhones. If you look at the computing and societal shift in the last 15 years, it will be scarcely imaginable what 30 years will bring.