S&P 500 Returns

Really, I do not understand your reasoning since the S&P 500 has an annualized return of >10% since 1970.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index#Annual_returns

@wsstrange:The S&P 500 is 50% above its 2008 peak on May 8, 2008.[1] That's a 5% annual compounded return ((210/140)^(1/7)). And that's using the 2008 peak: if I use the lowest price from 2008 (in December), your return would have been 8.8% annually. Inflation (at least in USD) has been benign during this period, so probably there has been a real 4% return during that period. I don't know how you concluded that you didn't get a 4% real return during this

It is a fact in the sense that the average stock market return over the course of the 20th century was ~10%. Of course, as every prospectus tells you, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but what else are you going to use as a baseline?

The issue is he is telling this story from 2009-today in a frothy market. Yes, historically markets have gone up 9.2% on average over the last 50 years in a balanced portfolio but what happens if he invests from 2003-2008. It's a little different story. It's hard to use long term data for a short term notion.Going forward, we are in a different environment where 9% might not be the annual return. Interest rates are almost nothing and not going back to late 70's level in the for

on top of that, the entire argument is predicated on us stock returns over a 100-150 year time period (an unusual one at that). what's the real expected investment life of the audience? the sample is ridiculously small.

He's using US stock market data for his argument. The US stock market over the last 100 years has been an obvious outlier. In that time the US grew from a small fraction of the world economy to dominating it.If you want to make this argument, you have to use global stock market data.Personally, I use 2% after inflation for my calculations, and consider that to be optimistic. There are lots of examples of stock markets returning less than inflation over long term periods.

You are being downvoted for some unknown reason. 8% is a high estimate and people simply averaging the past and coming up with that number as a reasonable predictor of the future are the ones slamming the downvote button in hopes that you are wrong.1989-2019 with dividends reinvested and inflation controlled show a return of 7.3% in the S&P 500 index. But 1959-1989 with the same parameters shows a return of 4.96% by just moving the time period back 30 years.Arbitrary endpoints can make

10% annual yield is great for an investment.In real terms, the S&P 500 price return was about 3.2% p.a. since the peak in 1968, 5.2% since 1988, and less than 3% since 2000.Real total (ie with dividends) return p.a. over a decade has been between -4% and 17%, with an average of around 7%.As things stand currently, I'd not plan on more than 6% total return in real terms over the next two decades.

I suspect they're thinking longer term than 3 months. The S&P returned nearly 29% in 2021, 18% in 2020 and 38% in 2019. That is doubling your money (nominally) in 3 years which is fantastic compared to the averages.

A 10x return on something bought in the 70s is very poor in comparison to the stock market which will double your money roughly every 7-10 years.