Prediction Markets
This cluster centers on discussions about prediction markets, including their definition, effectiveness as forecasting tools compared to gambling or polling, specific platforms like PredictIt and Polymarket, and concerns like accuracy, manipulation, and insider trading.
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What about using a prediction market?
How is a "prediction market" different to gambling?
care to put your money where your mouth is in a prediction market?
the prediction markets? why don't we just flip coins over it, that sounds scientific as well!
Wasn't this the promise of 'prediction markets'?https://www.predictit.org(you can read promise as 'value prop' too, I don't know much about these, just that they exist and are a recent creation)
How often are these prediction markets "correct"? Has this been studied?
Sounds like a job for a prediction market!
Prediction markets offer a possible solution.
Look up "predictions markets".
It seems like this would be a great place for a prediction market. Anonymously aggregate the information of people who know enough that they are prepared to lay money on the line. Replace the conflicts of interest with a direct interest in profiting from being right.